It’s been a tough road trip for the Brewers, who are coming off back-to-back series losses to the Astros and Marlins. They have one more city to stop at before heading home for Memorial Day, as they travel to Boston for an interleague series against the Red Sox.
The Red Sox are third in the AL East but have been surging a little. After dropping four straight games, they have won their last four, which includes a three-game sweep of the Rays this week. They have also faced their share of injuries, with 14 different players placed on the IL so far this season. However, they have been getting healthier in the month of May, and their last player placed on the IL was Masataka Yoshida on May 1. They will also be without Triston Casas, who is on the 60-day IL with a rib strain.
On offense, the Red Sox have been around the middle of the league. Their 99 wRC+ is just below average, and that has dropped a bit with a 91 wRC+ in the month of May. Jarren Duran leads the team as he has played in every game this season, posting a .271/.342/.462 batting line with three home runs, 30 runs scored, 20 RBI, and 11 stolen bases. The power hitters in the lineup are Rafael Devers (.285/.383/.563, 10 HR, 23 RBI) and Tyler O’Neill (.248/.358/.525, 11 HR, 17 RBI). Connor Wong leads the team in batting average (.350/.381/.521).
Despite the Brewers having some recent rough days on offense, their overall offense is still one of the best in the league. Their 117 wRC+ this season is fourth in all of MLB, and it’s been consistent with a 116 wRC+ (third in MLB) in the month of May. William Contreras has a .320/.400/.520 batting line in May, and Joey Ortiz has been strong with a .313/.400/.667 line. Ten different Brewers have a wRC+ over 110 in the month of May. The offense is third in MLB with 244 runs scored this season, and fourth in May with 94 runs scored.
Though the Red Sox offense has been about average this season, their pitching staff has been one of the best in the league. Their 2.94 ERA is second in MLB, and their 3.45 FIP is second as well. They also lead the league in walk rate (2.52 BB/9). May has been a little tougher for them, with a 3.54 team ERA (ninth in MLB) and 3.78 FIP (11th in MLB). The Brewers will have a challenge ahead of them, as they will face their top two starters in Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford. They will also face Nick Pivetta, who is having a solid season.
The bullpen is just as strong. Long-time closer Kenley Jansen (3.24 ERA, 2.60 FIP) leads the bullpen with eight saves in 16 2⁄3 innings. Rookie Justin Slaten (3.12 ERA, 1.80 FIP) has also been an integral part of the bullpen, taking on some of the closing duties as well as some longer appearances. LHP Brennan Bernardino (0.89 ERA, 2.90 FIP) has only allowed nine hits in 20 1⁄3 innings but has allowed nine walks. Greg Weissert (2.29 ERA, 2.74 FIP), Chris Martin (3.26 ERA, 2.83 FIP), Cam Booser (3.24 ERA, 3.62 FIP), and Zack Kelly (1.54 ERA, 3.83 FIP) round out the bullpen. Former Brewer Chase Anderson is also in the bullpen but has almost exclusively pitched to finish blowout games.
Unfortunately, the numbers haven’t been as strong for the Brewers pitching staff. While their 3.92 ERA in May is right in the middle of the league (14th in MLB), their 4.36 FIP is towards the bottom (24th). The starters have a 4.18 ERA and 4.52 FIP in May, while the bullpen has been a bit better with a 3.59 ERA and 4.15 FIP. The Brewers ace, Freddy Peralta, will not start in this series, as the Brewers will turn to Bryse Wilson, Colin Rea, and (likely) Tobias Myers.
Probable Pitchers
Friday, May 24 @ 6:10 p.m: Bryse Wilson (2.79 ERA, 4.94 FIP) vs. Kutter Crawford (2.17 ERA, 2.87 FIP) (Apple TV+ Exclusive)
Bryse Wilson has continued to provide some stability to the rotation despite all of the injuries that have hit this season. In his last two starts, he pitched into the fifth inning and allowed two runs. His last start against the Astros went 4 2⁄3 innings, where he allowed two runs. He only threw 58 pitches in the start as Pat Murphy went to the bullpen early.
Kutter Crawford is in his fourth season in the majors. He’s been a consistent pitcher in his 10 starts. He’s pitched at least five innings and struck out at least five in nine starts, and he’s thrown 84-plus pitches in every start. He had a 0.66 ERA after his first five starts but has a 3.52 ERA in his last five starts. In his last start against the Cardinals, he allowed one run in 5 2⁄3 innings with five strikeouts, six hits allowed, and two walks.
Saturday, May 25 @ 3:10 p.m: Colin Rea (4.07 ERA, 4.67 FIP) vs. Nick Pivetta (3.04 ERA, 4.53 FIP)
It’s been a rough month of May for Colin Rea. In four starts this month, he has a 5.14 ERA and 3.89 FIP over 21 innings. He has allowed at least three runs in his last three starts. His last start was Sunday in Houston, where he allowed five runs in 4 1⁄3 innings against the Astros.
Nick Pivetta has improved from last season, dropping his ERA by a full run in five starts so far this season. His control is strong with 30 strikeouts compared to just two walks. However, he has been prone to allowing home runs, with seven allowed in 26 2⁄3 innings. He also doesn’t make long starts; his longest start has been six innings and he has maxed out at 90 pitches. His last start was on Sunday against the Cardinals. He allowed just a solo home run in six innings, with eight strikeouts and no walks.
Sunday, May 26 @ 12:35 p.m: TBD vs. Tanner Houck (1.94 ERA, 2.21 FIP)
The Brewers have not announced a starter for this game yet. This would be Joe Ross’ spot in the rotation, but he was placed on the injured list on Tuesday. Tobias Myers is the most likely candidate; he pitched an inning on Tuesday and would be on normal rest. So far this season, he has a 5.00 ERA in 18 major-league innings. His results have been stellar for Nashville, where he has a 1.45 ERA in 18 2⁄3 innings.
Tanner Houck is in his fifth season in the majors and is putting together his best year yet. He’s already pitched 65 innings this season, and his professional high in a season is 119 innings at High-A in 2018. He also has 62 strikeouts so far this season, compared to just 12 walks. His last start was on Monday against the Rays. He pitched seven shutout innings of two-hit baseball, striking out five with just one walk.
Prediction
This is going to be a tough series for the Brewers. It’s going to be a battle between the Brewers offense and the Red Sox pitching staff. However, the matchups favor the Red Sox more this time around. This one will go to the Red Sox, who will take two of three in the series.
