Mets set to host very good Dodgers for three games (2024)

Having won their series finale against the Giants in dramatic fashion on Sunday afternoon, the Mets (22-30) finally ended a losing streak that had seen that drop five in a row. Their recent record remains miserable, however, as the team has gone 6-15 since it last spent a day over .500 on May 2.

If the Mets are to save their season, the task of doing so won’t be easy over the next three days, as the Dodgers (33-22), a team with the second-most wins in the National League this year, are in town for a three-game series. And with a rough forecast in store for the series opener, it’s possible that the game scheduled for this afternoon will need to be made part of a doubleheader—with a chance of rain in the forecast around game time on Wednesday, too.

The Mets have slipped below league average in scoring runs, as they’ve averaged 4.27 runs per game, a rate that ranks 18th in baseball and just a shade below the league average of 4.33. Run prevention has been a problem, too, as the Mets have given up 4.73 runs per game, the eighth-highest rate in the sport.

As you might have guessed, the Dodgers have been significantly better at both of those things, as they rank fifth with 4.91 runs scored per game and fifth-lowest with just 3.65 runs allowed per game.

To say the Dodgers’ lineup is very good is probably an understatement. The team has five qualified hitters, and all five of them have been excellent, as evidenced by their hitting lines, sorted here by wRC+:

• Shohei Ohtani: .336/.403/.621, 190 wRC+
• Mookie Betts: .335/.431/.542, 182 wRC+
• Freddie Freeman: .284/.390/.443, 140 wRC+
• Will Smith: .297/.365/.477, 138 wRC+
• Teoscar Hernández: .259/.330/.493, 136 wRC+

On a typical day, those are the one through five hitters in the Dodgers’ lineup, albeit in a slightly different order. Any one of the five would lead the Mets in wRC+ by a wide margin, as New York’s top mark among qualified hitters belongs to Brandon Nimmo with 124.

If you’re looking to find some hope for Mets pitchers in this series, the rest of the Dodgers’ lineup has been significantly less potent. Max Muncy (124 wRC+) has been good, and Miguel Rojas (109 wRC+) has been above average, but five Dodgers hitters have made at least 50 plate appearances and are hitting well below league average. But the top of the Los Angeles lineup is so incredibly good at hitting that surviving and getting to the Dodgers’ lesser hitters is a challenge for any pitcher.

On the mound, Dodgers starting pitchers have a 3.54 ERA that ranks eighth in baseball, while their bullpen has a 3.25 ERA that trails only the Guardians and Yankees.

Simply put, this will be a tough series for the Mets, and that would be true even if the Mets had been playing good baseball over the past month. There’s a reason they play the games, but escaping the series without falling ten games under .500—which would require merely not getting swept—would feel like a relatively good outcome.

Monday, May 27: Tylor Megill vs. Gavin Stone at 4:10 PM EDT on SNY

Megill (2024): 9.0 IP, 11 K, 5 BB, 0 HR, 3.00 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 78 ERA-

In his return from his stint on the injured list, Megill pitched pretty well, and while the sample size here is extremely small, what he’s done thus far this year is encouraging. Whether or not he can maintain numbers that look this good over a longer stretch is an entirely different matter, as he’s typically wound up in the vicinity of a 5.00 ERA by the end of each of his major league seasons before this one.

Stone (2024): 50.0 IP, 34 K, 17 BB, 4 HR, 3.60 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 92 ERA-

Despite his low strikeout rate, Stone has gotten the job done through his first nine starts. The 25-year-old struggled mightily last year in 31.0 innings of major league work that saw him finish the year with a 9.00 ERA with the Dodgers. He’s cut down on his home run rate significantly so far this year, and that’s made a huge difference in the results he’s gotten.

Tuesday, May 28: Jose Quintana vs. Tyler Glasnow at 7:10 PM EDT on SNY

Quintana (2024): 52.2 IP, 36 K, 188 BB, 7 HR, 5.13 ERA, 4.63 FIP, 134 ERA-

While he hasn’t quite pitched well enough to bring his ERA/FIP back down to decent numbers, Quintana has been perfectly cromulent in his last two starts, having held two good teams—the Guardians and Phillies—to five runs in 11.1 innings. That’s good for a 3.97 ERA over those two starts. Both his best start and worst start of this season are looking like significant outliers at the moment.

Glasnow (2024): 67.0 IP, 87 K, 17 BB, 6 HR, 3.09 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 79 ERA-

Among qualified starting pitchers, Glasnow’s ERA ranks 34th, but that FIP ranks sixth. With a very high strikeout rate and no significant flaw, he’ll be the toughest starter the Mets face in this series. Having eclipsed the 100-inning mark only twice in his career, Glasnow is on pace to get there before the All-Star break in his first season with the Dodgers.

Wednesday. May 29: David Peterson vs. James Paxton at 4:10 PM EDT on SNY

Peterson

The 28-year-old lefty had a very good rehab stint across three levels of the Mets’ minor league system and gets a tough lineup in his return to the major league mound. Last year was a tale of two seasons for Peterson, as he struggled mightily in the first half, was twice sent down to Syracuse, and spent time in the major league bullpen before a late-season resurgence saw him pitch much better as a starter than he had early in the year.

Paxton (2024): 49.0 IP, 28 K, 28 BB, 7 HR, 3.49 ERA, 5.55 FIP, 89 ERA-

Injuries have limited Paxton significantly over the past few years, as he threw just 21.2 innings in total from 2020 through 2022, with just one-and-one-third inning thrown in 2021 and none in 2022. He was able to make 19 starts for the Red Sox last year and put up a 4.50 ERA in 96.0 innings, by far his highest workload since his 2019 season with the Yankees. The ERA thus far with the Dodgers has been good, but his strikeout and walk rates being identical are a red flag. Whereas Glasnow will be the toughest starter the Mets see in this series, Paxton should give them the best opportunity to keep pace with the Dodgers’ mighty offense.